Prof. Philip Kokic



BSc (Hons 1), MSc, PhD Honorary Professor, Climate Change Institute


Professor Philip Kokic is an Honorary Professor in the Climate Change Institute at the Australian National University.

Through the application of statistical methodology Philip has made many important contributions to a range of topics in climate science, including adaptation to climate change, seasonal climate forecasting, statistical downscaling, climate change attribution and analysis of the economic and social impact of climate change on agriculture and rural communities. His contributions have influenced government policy and business decision making, resulting in significant benefits to the environment and various sectors of the economy.

Philip is currently applying his expertise to industry by developing products that help businesses adapt their operations to climate extremes. During his career Philip worked across a broad range of application areas including sample survey design and analysis, economic analysis, financial risk analysis as well as climate risk. Philip worked for several years as a research scientist at CSIRO where he applied Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling, extreme value modelling and state-space modelling to climate risk problems. Prior to that he worked for the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE) on issues concerning the relationship between agricultural profitability, productivity and climate, and holistic measures of adaptive capacity. He has also worked in the Information Technology industry in Germany developing methodology for financial risk software, and as a Senior Research Fellow at the University of Southampton, providing statistical advice to the United Kingdom Office for National Statistics. Philip has over 160 publications of various types.  


Research interests

  1. Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation
  2. Climate Modelling


Bakar, K.S. and Kokic, P. (2017).  Bayesian Gaussian Models for Point Referenced Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Data. Journal of Statistical Research, 51, 17-40.

Hochman, Z., Heidi, H., Reddy, R.D., Sreenivas, G., Tallapragada, C., Adusumilli, R., Gaydon, D., Laing, A., Kokic, P., Singh, K.K. and Roth, C.H. (2017). Smallholder farmers managing climate risk in India: 2. Is it climate-smart? Agricultural Systems, 151, 61-72.

Crimp, S., Nicholls, N., Kokic, P., Risbey, J. S., Gobbett, D. and Howden, M. (2017), Synoptic to large-scale drivers of minimum temperature variability in Australia – long-term changes. International Journal of Climatology. doi:10.1002/joc.5365

Bakar, K.S., Kokic, P. and Jin, H. (2015). A spatio-dynamic model for assessing frost risk in south-eastern Australia. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics). 64, 755-778.

Bakar, K.S., Kokic, P. and Jin, H. (2016). Hierarchical spatially varying coefficient and temporal dynamic process models using spTDyn. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation. 86, 820-840.

Crimp, S.J, Bakar, K.S., Kokic, P., Jin, H., Nicholls, N. and Howden, M. (2015), Bayesian space–time model to analyse frost risk for agriculture in Southeast Australia. The International Journal of Climatology, 35, 2092–2108.

Ghahramani, A., Kokic, P.N., Moore, A.D., Zheng, B., Chapman, S.C., Howden, M.S. and Crimp, S.J. (2015). The value of adapting to climate change in Australian wheat farm systems: farm to cross-regional scale. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 211, 112-125.

Jin, H., Kokic, P., Hopwood, G., Ricketts, J. H. and Crimp, S. (2015). A New Quantile Projection Method for Producing Representative Future Daily Climate based on Mixed Effect State-Space Model and Observations.  In 21st International Conference on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM 2015), pp. 2883-2889. Gold Coast, Australia. Nov 2015.

Kokic, P., Jin, H., Crimp, S. and Hopwood, G. (2016). Climate extremes for BHP Billiton’s closed mines in North America. CSIRO report prepared for BHP Billiton, May, 2016.

Kokic, P., Jin, H., Crimp, S. and Hopwood, G. (2015). Climate extremes in the low rainfall region of the wheat belt. CSIRO report prepared for the Grains Research Development Corporation, October, 2015.

Kokic, P., Jin, H., Crimp, S. and Hopwood, G. (2015). Climate extremes for Optus and SingTel telecommunication assets. CSIRO report prepared for Optus and SingTel, November, 2015.

Kokic, P, Crimp, S., and Howden, M. (2014). A probabilistic analysis of human influence on recent record global mean temperature changes. Climate Risk Management, 3, 1-12.

Kokic, P., Jin, H. and Crimp, S. (2013). Improved point scale climate projections using a block bootstrap simulation and quantile matching method. Climate Dynamics, 41, 853-866.

Kokic, P, Crimp, S., and Howden, M. (2011). Forecasting climate variables using a mixed-effect state-space model. Environmetrics, 22, 409-419.

Ricketts J.H., Kokic P. N. and Carter J. O. (2013). Consistent Climate Scenarios: projecting representative future daily climate from global climate models based on historical climate data. In Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R.S. and Boland J. (eds) MODSIM2013, 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2013, pp. 2785–2791.

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